Carney confronts Poilievre in 2025 amid escalating US-Canada tensions and tariffs.
Pierre Poilievre, the head of Canada’s Conservative party, is the former central banker’s primary opponent in the ballot on April 28. His political capital has decreased as US-Canada ties have deteriorated due to threats from US President Donald Trump.
In Canada, voters elect representatives of political parties in their districts or ridings, rather than the prime minister directly. The prime minister and government will be formed by the leader of the party with the most elected members to parliament.
The front-runners are Carney’s Liberal Party and Poilievre’s Conservative Party, but there will also be other significant political parties on the ballot, such as the Green Party, the Bloc Québécois, which is headquartered only in Quebec, and the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), which is headed by Jagmeet Singh.
House prices and the trade war
When former prime minister Justin Trudeau resigned last month, Poilievre was the front-runner. However, Trump’s severe tariffs and threats to Canada’s sovereignty fundamentally changed the outcome of the election.
Canadian industries have been rocked by Trump’s decision to impose a 25% penalty on Canadian steel and aluminum, automobiles and auto components, and his threats to impose tariffs on timber and medicines. Carney has warned of “tough days ahead” with pressure on Canadian employment, a fact he has not sugarcoated.
Following Trump’s announcement of broad tariffs that mostly spared Canada but sent world markets into a tailspin, Carney told a news conference this month that “these tariffs are fundamentally damaging to the American economy and by extension to the global economy.”
The high cost of living is another problem facing Canadians, particularly the shortage of affordable housing, which is expected to be made worse by a trade war with the US.
Last month, the Ontario Home Builders’ Association issued a warning, stating that tariffs and counter-tariffs on steel and aluminum goods will probably increase the price of building materials, making it more costly to build or purchase new homes and exacerbating the problem of housing affordability.
For instance, economist Randall Morck, a professor at the University of Alberta’s business school, claims that US and Canadian vehicle tariffs would increase the cost of cars on both sides of the border.
He said, “The decline in stock prices has rendered everyone poorer,” suggesting that this likely indicates investors’ beliefs that a recession and more unemployment may be forthcoming.
Though he has been working to strengthen his relationships with more “reliable” partners, Carney, a political novice, has not ruled out further discussions with Trump. Unusually, he traveled to Europe for his first foreign trip as prime minister, where he discussed strengthening military, economic, and security connections with French and British leaders.
Despite being a new politician, Carney has decades of experience in finance, which allowed him to guide countries through significant international crises and turbulent times. He guided the UK through Brexit while serving as governor of the Bank of England, which he said mirrored what would happen to the US when tariffs are imposed.
“I have already viewed this film.” During a campaign rally in Ontario earlier this month, he stated, “I am aware of the consequences that will befall them; the United States will become more vulnerable.”
According to experts, many Canadians believe Carney is in a good position to handle a trade battle with a longstanding friend.
It is essential to stand together and take swift, strong action when a crisis occurs. And we will do it,” Carney said earlier this month, positioning himself as the candidate to challenge the US president.
Poilievre, a professional politician who was a cabinet member in the Conservative administration of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, has had his rise stalled by tensions with the United States. He has positioned himself as a family guy and as someone outside of the “Ottawa elite” in an effort to appeal to working-class Canadians throughout his campaign.
Poilievre has gained followers who are fed up with Liberal government thanks to his heated rhetoric about cutting taxes and bureaucracy and his populist “Canada First” program. However, Poilievre currently seems to be avoiding parallels to US President Donald Trump; he has frequently said that he is “not MAGA,” criticized Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st US state, and backed reciprocal tariffs.
Charles-Etienne Beaudry, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa and the author of “Radio Trump: How he won the first time,” claims that he differs from Trump due to his decades of political experience and humble upbringing as the son of two schoolteachers.
According to experts, the main reason Carney’s advantage over Poilievre has grown is because the former banker has spoken out more than his rival on the specifics of Canada’s plans to establish trade relations with other nations and impose retaliatory tariffs.
The economist Morck notes the degree of mistrust and anti-American attitude among Canadians, saying, “I expect that [voters] are going to vote for the candidate that they think will minimize the cost of the trade war with the US.” “It’s unlike anything I’ve seen since the Vietnam War.”